https://raymondltremblay.r-universe.devRecent package updates in raymondltremblayR-universehttps://github.com/raymondltremblay.pnghttps://raymondltremblay.r-universe.devThu, 15 Oct 2026 19:08:28 GMTraymond.tremblay@gmail.com (Raymond L. Tremblay)Tests whether an episodic recruitment record can be the delayed consequence of a reproductive record alone, under any distributed lag and with a constant fraction of propagules becoming recruits. A delay is a convolution, and a convolution is a weighted average, so the concentration in time of expected recruitment can never exceed that of reproduction: reproduction's own concentration is a ceiling. The package computes that ceiling by searching families of lag weights (pure delays, windows, geometric decay and Dirichlet draws), calibrates the pooled comparison against negative-binomial counts to show what it can and cannot refute, and runs the host-level (replicate-unit) test in which the null is the lag hypothesis exactly as it is asserted: expected recruitment on each unit is that unit's own lagged reproduction, scaled to its own total. Uncertainty on the exceedance comes by three routes, a cluster bootstrap over units, a Bayesian bootstrap (Rubin 1981 <doi:10.1214/aos/1176345338>) and a negative-binomial model of the counts fitted with 'Stan' through 'cmdstanr'; recruit_triage() asks whether a first sighting is a recruit or a plant returning from dormancy. Plotting functions draw the ceiling strip, the lag profiles against the observed counts, the calibration and a forest plot of the intervals. The census data on the epiphytic orchid Lepanthes eltoroensis analysed in the companion paper are included.https://github.com/r-universe/raymondltremblay/actions/runs/38903930836Thu, 15 Oct 2026 19:08:28 GMTrecruitlag0.1.0.9000successhttps://raymondltremblay.r-universe.devhttps://github.com/raymondltremblay/recruitlagrecruitlag.Rmdrecruitlag.htmlIntroduction to recruitlag: a worked analysis, step by step2026-10-05 15:45:162026-10-05 15:45:16invented-regimes.Rmdinvented-regimes.htmlInvented records: where the test has power and where it does not2026-09-12 16:29:272026-10-05 15:45:16intervals.Rmdintervals.htmlReading the intervals: confidence, credible, and the four ways to cut one2026-09-13 14:10:392026-10-05 15:45:16lepanthes.Rmdlepanthes.htmlThe Lepanthes eltoroensis analysis2026-09-12 16:29:272026-10-05 15:45:16mathematics.Rmdmathematics.htmlThe mathematics behind the test, and the functions that implement it2026-09-12 16:29:272026-10-15 19:08:28raymond.tremblay@gmail.com (Raymond L. Tremblay)Computes effective population size (Ne) and the Ne/N ratio for stage-structured populations using the matrix population model framework of Yonezawa (2000) <doi:10.1111/j.0014-3820.2000.tb01244.x>. Functions are provided for sexually reproducing, clonally reproducing, and mixed (sexual + clonal) populations. Includes sensitivity and elasticity analyses for Ne/N with respect to vital rates.https://github.com/r-universe/raymondltremblay/actions/runs/37694065290Wed, 07 Oct 2026 20:21:13 GMTNeStage0.8.1.9000successhttps://raymondltremblay.r-universe.devhttps://github.com/raymondltremblay/nestageNeStage_functions.RmdNeStage_functions.htmlNeStage Functions: A User Guide2026-03-06 13:46:242026-03-07 01:37:40NeStage_quickstart.RmdNeStage_quickstart.htmlNeStage: Quick Start Guide2026-03-06 23:58:092026-03-12 18:09:50Ne_Yonezawa2000.RmdNe_Yonezawa2000.htmlReplicating Yonezawa et al. (2000) with NeStage2026-03-05 22:19:542026-10-07 15:59:04NeStage_sensitivity.RmdNeStage_sensitivity.htmlSensitivity Analysis for Conservation Decision-Making2026-03-06 13:46:242026-03-12 18:09:50