recruitlag - Can Episodic Recruitment be a Delayed Consequence of Continuous
Reproduction?
Tests whether an episodic recruitment record can be the
delayed consequence of a reproductive record alone, under any
distributed lag and with a constant fraction of propagules
becoming recruits. A delay is a convolution, and a convolution
is a weighted average, so the concentration in time of expected
recruitment can never exceed that of reproduction:
reproduction's own concentration is a ceiling. The package
computes that ceiling by searching families of lag weights
(pure delays, windows, geometric decay and Dirichlet draws),
calibrates the pooled comparison against negative-binomial
counts to show what it can and cannot refute, and runs the
host-level (replicate-unit) test in which the null is the lag
hypothesis exactly as it is asserted: expected recruitment on
each unit is that unit's own lagged reproduction, scaled to its
own total. Uncertainty on the exceedance comes by three routes,
a cluster bootstrap over units, a Bayesian bootstrap (Rubin
1981 <doi:10.1214/aos/1176345338>) and a negative-binomial
model of the counts fitted with 'Stan' through 'cmdstanr';
recruit_triage() asks whether a first sighting is a recruit or
a plant returning from dormancy. Plotting functions draw the
ceiling strip, the lag profiles against the observed counts,
the calibration and a forest plot of the intervals. The census
data on the epiphytic orchid Lepanthes eltoroensis analysed in
the companion paper are included.
